As Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stares down his final weeks as leader of the Liberal Party (and of the country), the vying to replace him are ramping up their campaigns.
Trudeau's success in until late March may buy them all a bit of time to build support ahead of a party leadership vote, but with a federal election looming soon thereafter, time will be tight for the chosen candidate to set the party up for success.
Indeed, only one of the expected candidates 鈥� former Finance Minister Christie Freeland 鈥� showed any promise for improving the party's electoral fortunes in . If she were to succeed in securing the leadership, the poll 鈥� done before Trudeau announced he'd resign 鈥� shows the Liberal Party's vote share nationally could jump eight points to 21 per cent. That said, the Conservative Party still holds a 15-point lead in a scenario with Freeland as leader.
With such a bleak outlook for the Liberals, we asked Dr. Scott Pruysers, an associate professor in Dal鈥檚 Department of Political Science, what鈥檚 at stake for the candidates and how the coming leadership saga could play out.
Why would a possible leadership candidate throw their hat in the ring right now when the odds are stacked against the party in the next election?
With limited time to introduce themselves to the electorate before the next election, and with historically low polling numbers, it might seem odd that anyone would raise their hand to become the next Liberal leader. However, there are several possible reasons why someone might be interested in running, including the ability to rebuild the party.听
I will focus on two likely explanations here.听 First, there is , and the decision to run might not be about winning (at least not winning this leadership election). There have been a number of individuals who have sought and won their party鈥檚 leadership after initially being defeated. This includes Brian Mulroney, Ed Broadbent, Jean Chretien, Joe Clark, John Diefenbaker, John Turner, Michael Ignatieff, Paul Martin, and Erin O鈥橳oole. Several of these very individuals went on to become not only party leader but also Prime Minister. Even in defeat a losing candidate鈥檚 profile and visibility can be heightened significantly and stepping forward now may be more about positioning themselves for the future.听
Second, for many potential candidates, this may represent their best, and perhaps only, chance at becoming the leader of the Liberal Party. Liberal leaders have exhibited very little diversity, and the party has never selected a woman to lead the party. A phenomenon titled suggests that women are more likely to be selected as party leader when their party is in crisis and the odds of failure are high (think of Kim Campbell and the PCs in the 1990s). Atypical factors such as crisis and scandal often inspire potential frontrunning male candidates to step aside, instead waiting for more ideal circumstances to contest the party鈥檚 leadership, and therefore increasing the chances that a woman is selected. As strategic actors, many women may step forward knowing the context is less than ideal but understanding that this may be their best chance.听
What are some of the steps a new leader could take to turn the party鈥檚 electoral outlook for the coming federal election around?
The electoral context for the next Liberal leader is dire, with some polls putting the party at less than 20 per cent. With that said, there is some that selecting a new leader can result in a modest, though short-term, polling bump for political parties.听 Internal elections create a lot of buzz and excitement and offer the party an opportunity to rebuild/rebrand as it recruits new members and supporters. At the same time, leadership candidates take their campaigns across the country, receiving widespread media attention and publicity. Liberal leadership candidates will be in the spotlight over the course of the next few months and while a change in leadership is unlikely to change the tide of public opinion completely, it can start the rebuilding process.听
In terms of concrete steps that the party and new leader can do, there are a few. Among the most important is to establish a strong slate of candidates. While leaders and national campaigns matter to election outcomes, local candidates and their campaigns are not . After all, Canada does not directly elect a Prime Minister. Putting together a strong team and nominating quality candidates in each of the country鈥檚 338 electoral districts will be essential (and difficult given the party鈥檚 current standing).听
How tough would it be for a new leader who fails to gain a decent electoral outcome in the coming election to stay on in the position?
While not unheard of, it will be very difficult for a new Liberal leader to remain in their position in the context of a poor electoral showing. Historically, Liberal leaders have been afforded more latitude in remaining in the position and were often given the opportunity to rebuild after an election loss. John Turner, for example, remained as party leader after a landslide PC victory in 1984 reduced the Liberals to just 40 seats. Likewise, Pierre Trudeau lost the 1979 election to Joe Clark only to stay in the position and win a year later in 1980. Similar examples can be seen in the 1950s and 60s with leaders such as Lester Pearson and Louis St. Laurent 鈥� both of whom lost elections and remained as leader.听
Contemporary party leaders, however, have not been given second chances. It has been nearly two decades since a Liberal party leader who did not form government was able to stay in the position. Michael Ignatieff (2011), St茅phane Dion (2008), and Paul Martin (2006) all resigned after failing to form government. Of course, what performing 鈥減oorly鈥� looks like will be different depending on the party. Parties that do not form government, such as the New Democrats, have traditionally been more willing to provide electorally unsuccessful leaders with more latitude, even in recent elections (i.e., Jagmeet Singh remained leader of the NDP despite the party losing 15 seats in 2019).听 For the Liberals and Conservatives, however, the threshold for success has often been higher. In this context where Liberals and Conservatives define success strictly in terms of forming government, a losing leader would likely face quick and sustained pressure to resign.听
(Images: Christy Clark听 from Province of British Columbia's official Flickr account; Chrystia Freeland from Alex Guibord on Flickr; and Mark Carney from the Bank of England's Flickr account)